Federal spending · FY2023
Social Security
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Social Security provides essential income support to retired and disabled American workers and their families. Its core mission is to offer a foundation of economic security, mitigating poverty among the elderly and disabled and providing survivor benefits. Success is measured by the extent to which it ensures a basic standard of living for beneficiaries, allowing them to maintain dignity and financial stability post-retirement or in the event of disability. The program's primary stewards are the Social Security Administration (SSA) and the Department of the Treasury, which manages the trust funds. Key program streams include Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI), both critical for millions of Americans.
The problem
Social Security's status is 'stable' with a notable trend of +11.1% in outlays, reaching $1.4 trillion in FY2023. While currently stable, this upward trend warrants attention due to the program's long-term solvency challenges. The primary audit concern is the demographic shift: an increasing ratio of beneficiaries to workers, coupled with rising life expectancies, places sustained pressure on the program's funding model. Although the program has dedicated trust funds, the projected depletion of these reserves in the coming decades necessitates proactive policy adjustments. Current execution and program integrity controls appear adequate for day-to-day operations, but the underlying actuarial imbalance remains the most significant fiscal risk. The increasing outlay trend, even within a stable status, signals the growing demand on the system, which must be reconciled with its revenue base to ensure long-term sustainability.
The solution
To support the long-term sustainability of Social Security, AI can be strategically employed to enhance actuarial forecasting and policy impact analysis. Develop sophisticated AI models that integrate real-time demographic data, labor market trends, and economic indicators to provide more granular and dynamic projections of program solvency than traditional actuarial methods. These models should simulate the long-term effects of various policy reforms, such as adjustments to the retirement age, benefit formulas, or contribution rates, allowing policymakers to assess trade-offs with greater precision. Furthermore, AI can be used to analyze program integrity by identifying anomalous patterns in benefit claims or earnings histories that may indicate potential errors or fraud, thereby strengthening accountability without compromising service delivery to eligible beneficiaries.
The biggest part of Social Security is Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund: $1.2T (84.7%). Just 2 of the 6 areas below hold 95.4% of the money.
How to read it: Tap a row to open what's inside. Colours match the chart above, and each row's share is its part of the row it sits under.
| Where it went | Gross outlays | Share | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.2T84.7% | 84.7% | ||
| $152.5B10.8% | 10.8% | ||
| $50.8B3.6% | 3.6% | ||
| $13.9B1.0% | 1.0% | ||
| $247K<0.1% | <0.1% | ||
| $2K<0.1% | <0.1% |